Currency Thaw: NBU Lifts Restrictions, but the Price of Freedom is Reserves and Devaluation Risks
🇺🇦 NBU introduces a currency thaw: restrictions on capital movement are eased starting August 11, 2026.
💰 Price of freedom: The NBU is ready to spend reserves ($4.76 billion in July) to contain devaluation.
📉 Forecast: Liberalization could add $0.3–0.6 billion in monthly demand and weaken the hryvnia by 1.5–3.5%.
⚠️ The IMF recommends caution, despite supporting a flexible exchange rate.
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